Iain Martin in The TIMES, 5 July 2024, under the headline “This is Starmer’s chance to cement Britain’s lurch to the left” **
With the right-wing vote split between the Tories and Reform, the Labour leader can realign public policy and present the centre-left as the natural force of government.
In seeking solace in the thought that it could have been worse — and yes, it could have been worse for the Conservatives — there is a danger that the party misses the real point of its defeat. A leftward realignment has taken place and with the opposition forces split the new prime minister has an extraordinary opportunity to build on that realignment and make it endure.
Just as Margaret Thatcher benefited in the 1980s from the left being split — between a wrecked Labour Party, the breakaway SDP and the Liberals — the right is now split between the Tories and Reform. Luckily for Labour, those divisions look irreconcilable this decade, with moderate Tories wanting nothing to do with Nigel Farage and the Reform leader dedicated to destroying the Conservatives.
If Sir Keir Starmer can govern effectively and the UK economy (already recovering) surprises on the upside then he will be able to present the centre-left as the natural force of government and win again.
Along the way, Britain’s most inherently left-wing prime minister ever will be able to shift the machinery of government and public policy leftwards while using centrist rhetoric. He has the power now and we will see it used in the accumulation of thousands of individual decisions, via public appointments, rule changes, sneaky tax tweaks and legislation.
It is little use the Tories pointing out that a good part of last night’s Labour victory is attributable to the vagaries and eccentricities of the first-past-the post system. The system is the system and it is supported by both major parties. Labour cleverly worked out where it needed to target its efforts to exploit the split on the right, avoided piling up votes in safe seats and instead won seats where it mattered.
Already there is some Tory magical thinking about what has happened. Tories who are pleased that the party has avoided the worst predictions, which had them in third place behind the Lib Dems, are calling it a shallow landslide that in theory can be overturned quite quickly. John Redwood, the Thatcherite veteran, pointed out on Friday morning that the Tories and Reform together got more votes than Labour. If only it were as simple as adding together two blocs of voters and assuming that equals a future majority.
Yes, the Tories got 6.8 million votes and Reform scored 4 million, which combined exceeded Labour’s 9.6 million votes. But add Labour’s total to the Lib Dem number, 3.4 million, and the Greens, 1.9 million, and those progressive parties ran up 14.9 million votes.Many of those voters seeking vengeance against the divided Tories over Partygate, Liz Truss and general chaos also figured out how to vote tactically, picking the party best placed to defeat the Tories. They are likely to do it again and again to keep the Tories out.
In theory it is always possible the Conservatives will get lucky after Starmer’s honeymoon ends. All governments get into trouble and Starmer might implode under pressure. On the left of his party there is a pro-Gaza caucus that will create problems, while the party has also lost seats to pro-Gaza independent MPs. Meanwhile, on the right flank the populists of Reform are pledged to attack Labour and build on the votes it won in Labour seats by tapping into concerns about immigration. There is nothing to suggest Labour will have any more success reducing illegal immigration than the Conservatives did.
But those on the centre-right should not rely on this being enough to ensure that this is a one-term Labour government. The conditions exist for Starmer to build a bigger vote and consign the Conservatives to a generation out of power.
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** This news appraisal was referred to me by a British Sri Lankan resident with roots at St Aloysius in Galle in my time in the 1950s. He also added the item headlined “Protesters fall silent as Downing St echoes to sound of Starmerism”
ALSO NOTE
*&* …. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crge8g9qxj3o
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Britain’s most inherently left-wing prime minister ever?
Starmer is ideologically rootless. An opportunist for power. If the Murdoch press shepherds him the way it did Blair. The UK will have a new, New Labour.