Rohan Gunaratne in Substack, 23 August 2026, with the above title …
Iran’s Shia crescent – its group of partners and proxies – have taken a severe beating. Nonetheless Iran, especially the IRGC, is determined to fight back.

The Shift
From the Strait of Hormuz, the center of gravity of the Middle East conflict has shifted to the Red Sea. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) has directed Houthi Movement’s Ansarallah to destabilise its enemies. In addition to the U.S. and Israel, Iran’s key enemies are the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.
Tensions and fighting between Yemen’s Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia have sharply escalated, effectively ending the relative calm established by the 2022 UN-brokered truce. Houthi cross-border drone and missile strikes targeting Saudi energy and airport infrastructure have met with retaliatory coalition air strikes, pushing Yemen toward renewed full-scale conflict. Saudi Arabia previously led a regional military coalition starting in March 2015 to support Yemen’s internationally recognized government after the Houthis took over the capital, Sanaa. An informal calm held since 2022, but regional ripples from broader Middle Eastern conflicts and clashes over blockades strained the status quo. Coalition-backed Yemeni government strikes on Sanaa Airport prompted the Houthis to announce a naval and economic blockade against Saudi Arabia, hitting back with a wave of anti-infrastructure and maritime drone attacks. The Houthis claimed responsibility for multiple drone and missile operations targeting Saudi regional assets, including facilities in Najran and Red Sea shipping lanes near Mocha. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched dozens of active ground and air operations targeting Houthi strongholds and military infrastructure in western and northern Yemen. Aid organizations warn that a full return to hostilities threatens to worsen what remains one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises.












