Fair Dinkum
Putin announces partial mobilisation to boost the forces in Ukraine, as the two Donbass republics and two regions of Ukraine go to a referendum to join the Russian Federation. If the referendums support joining Russia, then the four areas must formally apply to join Russia. It then goes to the Duma for approval, and if they do, it goes to Putin to sign into law. Perhaps the mobilisation is timed to coincide with these 4 areas joining Russia which would mean Ukraine is at war with Russia, no longer against the two republics in the Donbass.
Map From https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/21/mapping-the-ukraine-regions-voting-on-joining-russia
Russia’s mobilisation means THAT
* Russia is preparing for a long drawn out war, and that means a quick Ukranian victory is unlikely to happen, as predicted by Big US General. Putin also has the option to later move to full mobilisation which would boost the numbers of Russian troops to 1 to 2 million troops, and that would probably mean all out war with Europe.
* NOTE that Germany’s Chancellor has announced Germany will become the leading military power in Europe so we are going back to WW1 days to the same German-Russian conflicts. When the two Germany’s reunited, the then German Chancellor Helmut Kohl dismissed Western concerns about the rise of a military Germany when he reassured the world Germany would never build a huge military or become the dominant military power in Europe, and that Germany had learnt the lessons of two world wars and would stand for peace. Kohl is dead and no one remembers the assurances he gave and Germany is back to rearming and expanding its military preparing for war against Russia.
* This decision to partial mobilisation means the Russian government has finally realised that the 200,000 in the Donbass is insufficient. Their forces need to be doubled to 400,000 to half a million.
* The Russian Defence Minister says 300,000 reservists will be called up which will boost the numbers in Ukraine to half a million.
* Full mobilisation in Russia is 25 million troops, so the 300 000 is a tiny percentage of Russia’s capacity.
***********
ALSO NOTE
* “Mapping the Ukraine regions ‘voting’ on joining Russia,” ………… Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia say they plan to hold ‘referendums’ on becoming part of Russia between September 23-27…. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/21/mapping-the-ukraine-regions-voting-on-joining-russia
* Marc Champion: “Why Ukraine’s Donbas Region matters to Putin,” 20 Sept 2022, …………………………………………………………. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/why-ukraines-donbas-region-matters-to-putin/2022/09/20/bbd224e8-3905-11ed-b8af-0a04e5dc3db
* Holly Ellyat: “Battle for Donbas: 3 reasons why Russia is shifting its war machine to east Ukraine,” 19 September 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/why-does-russia-want-the-donbas-region-so-much.html
We seem to be having another Hitler! A 3rd World War will kill us all.