Gunaratna’s Conservative, Pro-American Reading of Today’s Political Confrontations

Introduction

Today, the world is influenced by the heightened threat environment in the Middle East. In the past, the global terrorism environment was largely influenced and shaped by propaganda disseminated by affiliates of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. In addition to the continuing threat by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, the threat today is shaped by another hostile actor – Iran.

The current wave of threat can be traced to the Hamas-led terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The attack led to 1200 deaths and 251 Israeli and foreign nationals being kidnapped. Israel’s overwhelming response to the Hamas led massacre has triggered terrorist attacks by a range of threat actors including lone offenders worldwide. The US and Israeli response to Iran’s fissile, missile, and terrorist proxy program in 2025 and 2026 has contributed appreciably to the global rise of terrorism. The current Iranian threat vectors are;

1. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operatives and agents
2. IRGC criminal proxies
3. IRGC militia – Hezbollah, Ansar Allah,
4. Radicalised lone offenders.

The Context

Governments have developed and shared significant intelligence on IRGC, its militia, terrorist, and criminal proxies. The insidious threat is from propaganda shared by IRGC and its affiliates to radicalise lone actors to mount attacks. The threat of lone actors is demonstrated by the shooter Ndiaga Diagne, a 53-year-old born in Senegal and living in Austin, Texas. Diagne killed three and injured 15. Diagne died from wounds sustained during an exchange of gunfire with Austin Police Department officers. The police responded to the mass shooting that occurred outside Buford’s Backyard Beer Garden in Texas during the early morning hours of March 1, 2026.

The FBI investigation indicates “an escalation in violent behavior in part tied to specific personal triggers and grievances related to U.S. and Israeli military actions involving Iran, culminating in a violent, impulsive attack”. Although the availability of weapons contributed to the shooting, Diagne was radicalised by the propaganda that he consumed. After becoming a naturalized U.S. citizen in April in 2013, he legally purchased a handgun in August 2017 and a rifle in October 2017, both of which were used in the March 1, 2026, shooting.

As the US-led war against Iran will continue in the foreseeable future, the threat of lone actors will be a persistent threat. Historically, such attacks were inspired by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. The FBI investigation revealed that “Diagne admired the recently deceased Iranian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At the time of the attack Diagne was wearing clothes that included an Iranian flag design t-shirt and a sweatshirt that read: “Property of Allah”. While Diagne’s affinity for Iran and the Ayatollah were most certainly factors in his mobilization to violence…..[1]”

Background

Diagne approached his target shortly before the Buford’s Backyard Beer Garden began preparing to close. The bar turned off the music and turned on the lights. Diagne drove from his home in a black Cadillac SUV southbound on Rio Grande Street past Buford’s Backyard Beer Garden. Close to 2:00 a.m. on March 1, 2026, he turned on the hazard lights of the vehicle and opened fire with a semi-automatic pistol on people at a patio and in front of the bar out the window of his vehicle, striking the majority of the victims in the attack. Diagne then drove westbound on West Sixth Street, before parking in a parking lot on Wood Street where he shot a man with an AR-15–style rifle in the shoulder. APD officers and Austin-Travis County Emergency Medical Services personnel arrived on the scene within 57 seconds of the first 911 calls for help.

Diagne then walked with the rifle back towards the bar, firing at people around the intersection of West Avenue and West Sixth Street. APD officers from CAST engaged with the shooter at about 2:03 a.m. at the intersection after being directed to the shooter by people in the area. Police officers shot Diagne multiple times from at least two different directions as he opened fire at officers and continued to approach the bar.

Diagne’s victims were identified as 19-year-old former Texas Tech University student Ryder Harrington, 30-year-old Minnesotan mixed martial arts fighter Jorge Isaac Munoz-Pederson, and 21-year-old University of Texas at Austin student Savitha Shanmugasundaram. Savitha had been scheduled to graduate in just a few months with dual degrees in management information systems and economics. Her bucket list included seeing all seven wonders of the world[2]. An avid Tech fan, Harrington was a member of the Fall 2024 Pledge Class of the Beta Theta Pi fraternity[3]. Killed at the brink of making his pro debut, Jorge Pederson was passionate about Muay Thai and MMA[4]. They all pursued their dreams until their lives were taken suddenly by Diagne, mobilised by extremist online content that he consumed and shared radicalising others.

Understanding the Threat

With the proliferation of extremist content following the Hamas-led massacre and Israel’s overwhelming response, a new global reality has emerged. An X account which the FBI investigators believe to be connected to the shooter was created in October 2024 and last posted in December 2025. In the posts, Diagne expressed pro-Iranian, antisemitic, anti-Christian, and misogynistic views. However, it did not explicitly indicate Diagne’s intent to commit an attack until a statement by the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi.

In April 2024, amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, Diagne replied to a post in which Araghchi criticized President Donald Trump and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, writing “THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION IS ETERNAL … you Zionist and islamophobes can be angry all you want but you can’t do a damn thing about it no matter what [sic]”[5]. Other posts from Diagne included one in which he called Trump a “shameless clown” and another which described Netanyahu as “EVIL”[6].

In other posts, Diagne denigrated Christianity, calling the religion “fake” and using vulgar language against various foundational Christian leaders. Diagne also made several replies to far-right political activist Laura Loomer, which attacked her for her views. In October 2025, Diagne replied “Muslims worship THE ONE AND ONLY TRUE GOD” to a post which said “Muslims and Christians don’t worship the same God”. Two months later, Diagne replied “SPERM and have built everything in this world” to a meme which said “Women produce babies. What do men produce?” indicating that he might have strongly resonated with the manosphere and a highly misogynistic notion of the roles of men and women.[7]

Response

In the case of the western world, such content is permitted as freedom of speech, protest and demonstration; and it is protected in their constitutions.  Together with the free availability and ready access to weapons, such attacks will occur in the coming months and years. Governments and community partners should develop far-reaching strategies and approaches to manage the threat of politicisation, radicalisation and mobilisation that leads to violence and terrorism. The threat has to be managed upstream and midstream rather than responding to it downstream.

With the failure of governments and their partners to regulate the internet, both state and non-state actors are using it to incite hatred and violence. In addition to Al Qaeda and Islamic State, the world will witness a third stream of terrorism in the coming months and years. This wave of violence will be conducted by both Sunni and Shi’ite followers as well as non-Muslims driven by the developments in the Middle East.

Conclusion

Today, Iran is governed by its deep state – the IRGC. The threat posed by the Iranian regime is multifaceted. It is a threat the international community neglected for five decades. The lone offender threat is one of the four threats.  In addition to radicalising communities including those living overseas, IRGC and its agents share propaganda to motivate others to incite and conduct violence. To save lives, it requires governments and partners to respond at multiple levels.

There will be similar attacks in the future.  Online content mobilise individuals to kill, main and injure innocent people. Unless and until, governments and partners decisively monitor and takedown online exclusivist and extremist content that politicise and radicalise the vulnerable, the threat of violence and terrorism will persist.

Prof. Rohan Gunaratna has authored over 30 books. He is the editor of the “Handbook of Terrorism in the Asia-Pacific” (UK, Imperial College Press, 2016), “Handbook of Terrorism in the Middle East” (Singapore, World Scientific, 2022) and “Palgrave Handbook of Terrorism in Africa” (Cham, Switzerland, Palgrave Macmillan, 2025). At the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, he teaches intelligence and national security, and homeland security, counter terrorism and intelligence. He trains military forces, law enforcement authorities and national security agencies.

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[1] FBI Provides Investigative Update on March 1 Austin Shooting, FBI, San Anthonio, May 7, 2026, https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/sanantonio/news/fbi-provides-investigative-update-on-march-1-austin-shooting

[2] Rabdall, Second student identified in Austin shooting, March 2, 2026 https://asamnews.com/2026/03/02/savitha-shan-ut-student-killed-austin-bufords-shooting/

[3] Brittany Crittenden, Family, friends remember former Texas Tech student killed in Austin bar shooting, KCBD, March. 2, 2026; https://www.kcbd.com/2026/03/03/family-friends-remember-former-texas-tech-student-killed-austin-bar-shooting/

[4] Derek James, Jorge Pederson, rising MMA fighter from Minnesota, killed in Texas bar mass shooting, CBS News, March 3, 2026, https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/minnesota/news/jorge-pederson-texas-bar-mass-shooting-mma-fighter/

[5] Anna Schecter, Richard Esposito, Pat Milton, Social media believed to be tied to Austin shooter is full of antisemitic, anti-Christian, misogynistic posts, CBS News, March 3, 2026 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/austin-shooting-social-media-posts/

[6] Anna Schecter, Richard Esposito, Pat Milton, Social media believed to be tied to Austin shooter is full of antisemitic, anti-Christian, misogynistic posts, CBS News, March 3, 2026 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/austin-shooting-social-media-posts/

[7] Anna Schecter, Richard Esposito, Pat Milton, Social media believed to be tied to Austin shooter is full of antisemitic, anti-Christian, misogynistic posts, CBS News, March 3, 2026 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/austin-shooting-social-media-posts/