Rajeewa Jayaweera in Email Circular, 21 November 2019
| Year 2019 | ||
| By Province | ||
| Row Labels | Sum of Gotabaya | Sum of Sajith |
| Central | 835,146 | 829,559 |
| Eastern | 227,653 | 665,163 |
| North-Central | 489,563 | 314,821 |
| Northern | 49,366 | 487,461 |
| North-Western | 883,038 | 616,317 |
| Sabaragamuwa | 768,528 | 492,535 |
| Southern | 1,119,424 | 475,333 |
| Uva | 485,025 | 344,245 |
| Western | 2,066,512 | 1,338,805 |
| Grand Total | 6,924,255 | 5,564,239 |
| Year 2019 | ||
| By Province and District | ||
| Row Labels | Sum of Gotabaya | Sum of Sajith |
| Central | 835,146 | 829,559 |
| Kandy | 471,502 | 417,355 |
| Matale | 187,821 | 134,291 |
| Nuwara Eliya | 175,823 | 277,913 |
| Eastern | 227,653 | 665,163 |
| Batticaloa | 38,460 | 238,649 |
| Digamadulla | 135,058 | 259,673 |
| Trincomalee | 54,135 | 166,841 |
| North-Central | 489,563 | 314,821 |
| Anuradhapura | 342,223 | 202,348 |
| Polonnaruwa | 147,340 | 112,473 |
| Northern | 49,366 | 487,461 |
| Jaffna | 23,261 | 312,722 |
| Vanni | 26,105 | 174,739 |
| North-Western | 883,038 | 616,317 |
| Kurunagala | 652,278 | 416,961 |
| Puttalama | 230,760 | 199,356 |
| Sabaragamuwa | 768,528 | 492,535 |
| Kegalle | 320,484 | 228,032 |
| Ratnapura | 448,044 | 264,503 |
| Southern | 1,119,424 | 475,333 |
| Galle | 466,139 | 217,401 |
| Hambantota | 278,804 | 108,906 |
| Matara | 374,481 | 149,026 |
| Uva | 485,025 | 344,245 |
| Badulla | 276,211 | 251,706 |
| Moneragala | 208,814 | 92,539 |
| Western | 2,066,512 | 1,338,805 |
| Colombo | 727,722 | 559,921 |
| Gampaha | 855,870 | 494,671 |
| Kalutara | 482,920 | 284,213 |
| Grand Total | 6,924,255 | 5,564,239 |
Rajeewa Jayaweera, analyst and author
A NOTE from GUS MATHEWS in London to RAJEEWA, 21 November 2019 … with emphasis added by The Editor, Thuppahi
Rajeewa, Thank you for this sterling work.
The results in tabular form are very interesting reading and depending on the political leanings of individuals it can be interpreted in various ways. However facts are stubborn and I conclude that the Muslim and Tamil votes from the respective ethnic areas voted overwhelming for Sajith Premadasa. In the predominately Sinhala areas GR garnered about close to fifty percent of the vote.
In essence it was not ‘walk over’ in favour of GR. If the parliamentary elections later in February/March 2020 reflect the current trend, based on the vagaries of the current proportional system the SLPP will have a majority; but whether a two third majority is there for the taking is a moot point. Psephologists may not agree with my assessment as the permutations of electoral intent and interpretation is a speciality beyond my interpretive skills.
My conclusions are that the electorate is volatile and the parliamentary election results will have a bearing on the performance of GR in the short term and also on the message of how the future economic performance will entail. The immediate tax cutting agenda and simplification of the tax system is commendable, but the salutary lesson is whether that in itself is adequate to produce appreciable results in the long term. Also the perception of the masses whether the economic engine for growth is on ‘terra firma’ to yield a positive economic difference to the common man is seminal.
The SLPP cannot ‘rest on its laurels’ by assuming that the victory at the presidential election will yield favourable results in the parliamentary general election. There is still a lot of work to be done to extricate Sri Lanka out of the economic morass that was the signature of the coterie of RW, Mangala Samaraweera and Ravi Karunanayake. The economic journey to prosperity is long and slow, however the down trodden masses who suffered the worst economic daggers to the heart of their living standards during the ‘yahapalanaya’ years will require immediate relief in the short term. Balancing the short term objective needs of the masses and the long term economic growth of the country at large is a task of immense economic and political propositions.
To quote James Carville an election strategist for Bill Clinton in 1992 ‘The economy stupid’. All other aspects in Sri Lanka pale into insignificance in comparison to the economy.
